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Saturday, February 11, 2006

Chronicle Claims "GOP Voters Like DeLay" But the Math says it's under 50%

Saturday, February 11, 2006

The Chronicle Sunday article on this election claims: “GOP voters still Like DeLay” but do the math.

The Chron poll showed nearly 50% of the voters were UNDECIDED. It also gave the three challengers about 10%. If half are undecided and another 10% already want someone else, that puts DeLay at 40%! That is below 51% needed for an outright win. That is not strong support --it is called a run off! Consider that he got 80% in 2002. So anything below that is a loss for him.

It means that as the undecided voters split their votes, DeLay will end up with even less than 40% on March 7. My advisors estimate his actual base is about 35%, mostly in Sugar Land, the venue observed by the Chronicle. If DeLay does somehow win March 7 or the run off, the seat will go to Democrat Nick Lampson -- who is already outpolling DeLay in a 60% GOP district!

The Chronicle article takes a shot at me, saying “the most he’s ever received in prior elections is 20%.” That’s good!

Fact – That 20% equals 5,000 more votes than the two new challengers have ever received against DeLay –in a district that changed boundaries three times and could change again since the US Supreme Court is hearing it on March 1! The other two challengers start with zero base since they have no prior history in this district. I have spent five (5) years and several pair of shoes in face time. That personal loyalty by people who always vote -- but don’t show up in the Chron's random poll of a few people. So I go into this election with at least 5,000 voters I can count (the second largest to DeLay's) versus zero for the other challengers. They are trying to buy the votes that I have been earning. They do have the bigger budgets, but mine comes from local people, not national or personal special interests. Bottom Line: This race is still wide open.

That also means that I’m probably the closest to DeLay for the No. 2 run off spot with my base from the last three elections. It would not take much to surpass DeLay when 40% are still undecided! The other challengers may try to buy votes this time, but I have worked to earn my votes. I thank everyone who has voted for me since 2000.

The Chronicle says they “see no groundswell” for me. They should have been with me last week in a church when I was talking to a couple people, and was suddenly surrounded by people -- all talking at once -- excited to see this Congress candidate. It happened in several places. It didn’t happen at the Sugar Land chamber but that is a small part of the district that covers four counties. Some of those people would vote for DeLay no matter what.

The Chronicle also flogged me for “talking too long to a constituent.” I can live with that. I am there to listen to them regardless of how long it takes. I try to talk to everyone.

The real question is who is best to take his place? I still say we need a global Congress rep with experience and integrity to deal with an increasingly dangerous, global world.

1 comment:

vicious dreamer said...

Problem with the news paper polls are that they want the statistics quick and fast. And the usual means for them to take survey is through phonecalls. This, of course, leads to statistical biases. People often hang up, or refuses to answer phone surveys, while those who do answer tends to be the radical of either conservative or liberal. See, that's the problem with the news polls on political topics, because they are never satisfactory accurate unlike science data. The samples the newspaper obtains are not an SRS, and so the normal density curve cannot be applied toward them. And the surveys also leaves out the population without telephone, or those who can't speak English (minorities).
Don't even trust the polls, because they could easily be miscalculated and so on.
Oh by the way, you have a nice blog here.